Kamino Risk Event Analysis: Feb 5-6, 2026

A significant market correction hit crypto on February 5-6, 2026. SOL dropped 18% (from $92 to $76), ETH fell 15%, and JLP declined 10%. This triggered a cascade of 55,649 liquidations across Kamino Finance markets, liquidating $19.36M in collateral from 30,030 wallets.
The protocol handled this volatility event cleanly: no bad debt was generated, and all liquidations processed efficiently.

Event Timeline

The sell-off unfolded over 48 hours. SOL fell from $92 to a low of $76 (-18.0%), ETH from $2,148 to $1,832 (-14.7%), and JLP from $3.83 to $3.43 (-10.4%). Start/End prices are the first and last hourly observations within the event period (Feb 5, 00:00 to Feb 6, 23:00 UTC).

Liquidation Timeline

The liquidation cascade followed the price decline closely:

  • Feb 5: Initial volatility with 29,185 liquidations and $8.77M seized as SOL broke below $85
  • Feb 6: Peak activity with 26,464 liquidations and $10.59M seized as SOL crashed to $76

Peak Activity: February 6, 00:00 UTC saw 26,456 liquidations with $10.59M in collateral seized as SOL crashed through $80.


Liquidation Analysis

By Market

Market Liquidations Collateral Seized
Main 44,665 $12.79M
JLP 10,560 $6.47M
Fartcoin 67 $47.0K
Bitcoin 214 $20.0K
JTO 4 $12.6K

The Main market saw the highest count of liquidations (44,665), while the JLP market had significant dollar value seized ($6.47M) despite fewer events.

By Collateral Type

Collateral Amount Seized
SOL $6.89M
JLP $6.58M
JITOSOL $2.14M
cbBTC $1.67M
xBTC $825K

By Correlation Type

Nearly all liquidation volume came from uncorrelated positions (volatile collateral against stablecoin debt), while correlated pairs (LST/SOL, SOL/LST, LST/LST, RWA/stablecoin) saw minimal liquidation activity.

Correlation Events Collateral Seized % of Total
Uncorrelated 54,775 $19.29M 99.6%
Correlated 874 $68K 0.4%

By Collateral/Debt Pair

Pair Events Collateral Seized
JLP/USDC 7,193 $5.19M
SOL/USDC 27,845 $4.67M
JITOSOL/USDC 949 $1.83M
cbBTC/USDC 1,155 $1.53M
SOL/USDT 5,092 $892K
JLP/PYUSD 1,353 $743K
SOL/PYUSD 1,518 $578K
xBTC/USDC 101 $546K
JLP/USDG 858 $331K
JLP/USDT 1,172 $319K

USDC was the dominant debt token across all pairs. JLP/USDC and SOL/USDC alone accounted for $9.86M (51%) of total collateral seized.


Post-Event Position Risk

After the event, 19,794 active obligations with debt remain (11,249 uncorrelated, 8,545 correlated). This is the total number of borrowing positions on Kamino with $\ge$ $100 in debt.

DTL (Distance to Liquidation) measures how far each position is from its liquidation threshold. When DTL = 0%, the position gets liquidated.

Distance to Liquidation (DTL)

Uncorrelated Positions (11,249)

Risk Tier DTL Range Volume % of Total # Positions
Critical <5% $336K 0.1% 17
Warning 5-10% $3.3M 0.9% 89
Elevated 10-15% $18.9M 5.3% 1,259
Monitor 15-25% $43.8M 12.4% 3,336
Safe >25% $287.6M 81.2% 6,548

Correlated Positions (8,545)

Risk Tier DTL Range Volume % of Total # Positions
Critical <1.5% $85K 0.0% 19
Warning 1.5-4% $102.6M 15.8% 250
Elevated 4-7% $273.9M 42.1% 1,474
Monitor 7-10% $106.5M 16.4% 816
Safe >10% $166.9M 25.7% 5,986

Top Critical Positions (by DTL)

Market Debt DTL Pair Correlation
Main $213K 2.6% SOL/USDT uncorrelated
Main $77K 1.1% SOL/bSOL correlated
Main $72K 4.5% cbBTC/PYUSD uncorrelated
Maple $30K 4.8% syrupUSDC/USD1 uncorrelated
Main $5.0K 2.1% SOL/PYUSD uncorrelated


Protocol Health

Metric Value
Total Supply $2.70B
Total Borrow $1.00B
Active Obligations 19,794
Bad Debt $0

The protocol remains healthy. No bad debt was generated during this event, demonstrating effective liquidation mechanisms.

Market Supply & Debt Changes During Event

Market Supply Start Supply End Supply Chg Borrow Start Borrow End Borrow Chg
Main $1,683M $1,543M -8.3% $658M $545M -17.1%
Prime $408M $463M +13.5% $164M $207M +25.8%
Maple $298M $242M -18.5% $119M $90M -23.9%
JLP $275M $239M -13.1% $95M $81M -15.1%
Jito $69M $66M -4.0% $33M $31M -5.6%
OnRe $46M $45M -1.6% $13M $13M +1.4%
Superstate $16M $25M +56.0% $4M $8M +88.8%

Flight to quality: While most markets contracted during the sell-off, Prime grew by +$55M in supply (+13.5%) and +$42M in borrow (+25.8%). Depositors moved capital from Main and other volatile markets into Prime, which has tighter risk parameters and more conservative collateral. Superstate also grew significantly, reflecting demand for real-world-asset-backed markets during crypto volatility.

Main’s supply trough hit $1,385M (-17.7% from start) before recovering to $1,543M by end of period. Maple saw the steepest sustained decline at -18.5% supply / -23.9% borrow, with limited recovery.


Outlook

  1. Monitor JLP market: Significant liquidation exposure ($6.47M seized)
  2. Watch SOL price: Further decline below $70 could trigger additional liquidations from positions in Warning/Elevated DTL tiers
  3. No immediate action required: Protocol mechanisms functioned correctly, no bad debt generated

Analysis Date: February 7, 2026
Event Period: February 5-6, 2026
Prepared by: Allez Labs

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