Kamino Lend Monthly Risk Insights - January 2026
1. Market Context & SOL Price
Kamino closed January with a flat supply, as RWA market inflows (Prime, Maple, OnRe) more than offset Main Market contraction, alongside 7% debt growth signals rising leverage across the protocol. The increase in liquidations (+324%) was concentrated in the final three days of January, with 13,435 of 14,355 events (94%).
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Total Supply: $3.32B (-0.4%)
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Total Debt: $1.30B (+7.0%)
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SOL Price: $112 (-10.4%)
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Transaction Volume: $9.8B (-37%)
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Interest Paid: $5.7M (-1.4%)
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Liquidations: 14,355 (+324%)
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Collateral Seized: $15.2M (+293%)
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Distinct Wallets: 111,264 (-0.2%)
SOL price exhibited significant volatility throughout January. After opening at $125, prices rallied to a mid-month peak of $146 on January 14 before reversing sharply. The final week saw stronger declines, culminating in the January 31 crash that briefly touched $100.58 before recovering to close at $112. This 10.4% monthly decline triggered substantial liquidation activity and position adjustments across the protocol.
2. Liquidity Macro View
Kamino’s liquidity dynamics by asset denomination reveal emerging trends. USD-denominated supply (stablecoins + RWAs) has grown to nearly half of protocol liquidity over the past year, continuing the significant shift in composition.
Composition split (January 31):
| Category | Supply | Share | Debt | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL + LSTs | $1.39B | 41.8% | $404M | 31.1% |
| Stablecoins + RWAs | $1.59B | 47.9% | $892M | 68.7% |
| BTC | $161M | 4.8% | $1.8M | 0.1% |
| Other (ETH, JLP, memes, governance) | $182M | 5.5% | $1M | 0.1% |
Stablecoins and RWAs account for 48% of supply, now surpassing the combined SOL and LST share (42%), with BTC (5%) and Other (5.5%) rounding out the profile. The debt side tells a different story: stablecoins account for 69% of all borrowing, boosted by an increasing number of strategies backed by RWA yield (PRIME, syrupUSDC, ONyc). SOL/LST debt (31%) is dominated by SOL borrowing for LST leverage strategies.
Trends reveal that January’s supply contraction was driven by the SOL denominated liquidity, as SOL price depreciation reduced USD-denominated values with SOL denominated supply essentially flat (+0.2%). Stablecoin supply also slightly declined driven by PYUSD outflows (-$120M), while RWAs continue demonstrating strength with Prime and Maple expansion.
Monthly supply changes by category:
Key movements:
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RWAs: Strongest category which continues growing aggressively, in particular PRIME (+$48M) and syrupUSDC (+$46M) with their high yield and leverage strategies.
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SOL/LSTs: Supply declined as SOL depreciation reduced USD-denominated values. LSTs like vSOL and JitoSOL saw withdrawals during month-end volatility, while stkeSOL was a notable new entrant (+$16M).
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Stablecoins: Supply outflows as PYUSD (-$120M) and USDC (-$83M) depositors withdrew, likely driven by reduced incentive yields making deposit rates less attractive. Separately, USDC debt increased (+$70M), driven by RWA market participants borrowing stablecoins against PRIME and syrupUSDC collateral rather than a broad increase in stablecoin borrowing demand.
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BTC: Continued growth as bitcoin collateral demand increased (xBTC +$12M).
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Other: JLP broke its late 2025 trend, with some growth this month (+$65M supply), driven entirely by existing users topping up positions rather than new entrants: 5,150 existing obligations grew from $161M to $229M as leveraged perpetual strategies regained momentum.
Asset-level flows:
Major flows reflected continued RWA growth and stablecoins rebalancing:
Major Outflows:
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PYUSD: -$120M supply - Largest outflow
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USDC: -$83M supply - Decrease while borrowing demand increased
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vSOL: -$26M supply - Significant withdrawals from The Vault staking positions (-54% in token terms)
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JitoSOL: -$24M supply - Deleveraging during month-end volatility
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CASH: -$13M supply - Continued normalization after incentive-driven growth
Major Inflows:
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JLP: +$65M supply - Strong resurgence in leveraged perpetual strategies
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PRIME: +$48M supply - Continued growth in tokenized HELOC yield product
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syrupUSDC: +$46M supply - Maple credit market expansion
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stkeSOL: +$16M supply - New LST entering the ecosystem
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xBTC: +$12M supply - Bitcoin collateral growth continues
On the debt side, borrowing patterns showed increased leverage:
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USDC Debt: +$70M - Strong borrowing demand across markets
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PYUSD Debt: +$42M - High utilization despite supply outflows
3. Risk & Liquidations
Distance to Liquidation: Correlated vs Uncorrelated Positions
Position risk depends on whether collateral and debt are correlated or uncorrelated. Correlated positions (LST/SOL, RWA/stablecoin) have both sides moving together, reducing liquidation risk and warranting tighter thresholds (<1.5% DTL for the Critical tier). Uncorrelated positions (SOL/USDC, BTC/stablecoin) face directional price exposure and use broader thresholds (<5% DTL).
Uncorrelated positions (SOL/USDC, BTC/USDC, JLP/USDC):
| Risk Tier | DTL Range | Debt Volume | Share | Positions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical | <5% | $2.3M | 0.3% | 252 |
| Warning | 5-10% | $15.7M | 2.2% | 490 |
| Elevated | 10-15% | $35.7M | 5.0% | 2,579 |
| Monitor | 15-25% | $127.4M | 17.8% | 5,887 |
| Safe | >25% | $536.0M | 74.7% | 10,233 |
Correlated positions (LST/SOL, RWA/stablecoin, stablecoin/stablecoin):
| Risk Tier | DTL Range | Debt Volume | Share | Positions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical | <1.5% | $0.16M | 0.02% | 25 |
| Warning | 1.5-4% | $93.7M | 12.5% | 358 |
| Elevated | 4-7% | $280.7M | 37.6% | 1,544 |
| Monitor | 7-10% | $135.5M | 18.1% | 975 |
| Safe | >10% | $236.6M | 31.7% | 8,752 |
Near-liquidation risk concentrates in uncorrelated positions: $2.3M in debt (252 positions) sits below the 5% DTL threshold - directional price exposure means these positions are actually liquidate during sell-offs, as January 29-31 confirmed. The bulk of uncorrelated debt (75%) remains in the Safe tier (>25% DTL).
Correlated positions show higher concentration in mid-risk tiers - 38% in Elevated (4-7% DTL) and 12.5% in Warning (1.5-4%) - which is structural: RWA markets (Prime, Maple) operate with high LTV parameters (85% max LTV for PRIME), pushing users toward narrow DTL bands as they maximize capital efficiency on stable-value collateral. Despite the tighter buffers, correlated positions carry inherently lower liquidation probability because both collateral and debt values move together, and the near-zero Critical tier ($0.16M) confirms this - these positions moved closer to the liquidation threshold due to interest rate accrual.
RWA Risk Commentary:
RWA markets warrant particular monitoring in this ongoing hypergrowth phase:
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Prime (34.5% growth): Benefits from the highest borrow capacity given PRIME’s stable value backed by HELOC short-term financing. However, this also leads to the highest concentration near liquidation thresholds (85% max LTV), a consequence of users maximizing capital efficiency on a stable-value asset.
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OnRe (47% growth): Healthiest risk profile among RWAs - conservative 50% max LTV parameters in January result in zero positions in the Critical tier.
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Maple (36% growth): Tokenized credit market with high utilization. syrupUSDC’s value stability reduces liquidation probability.
January Liquidations by Collateral Type:
Liquidations in January were overwhelmingly concentrated in SOL, JLP, LST and BTC collateral vs stablecoin debt as volatility absorbed margins. RWA and stablecoin-backed positions saw minimal liquidation activity, consistent with their stable-value collateral profiles.
Liquidation summary:
| Metric | January | December | MoM Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total events | 14,355 | 3,387 | +324% |
| Collateral seized | $15.2M | $3.86M | +293% |
| Debt repaid | $15.0M | $3.81M | +294% |
| Unique liquidators | 172 | 166 | +4% |
| Avg liquidation size | $1,057 | $1,631 | -35% |
The 35% drop in average liquidation size indicates January’s sell-off triggered a broad wave of smaller retail positions rather than a few large whale liquidations. Despite 4x the event volume, the same pool of ~170 liquidators absorbed the load efficiently. The $0.2M spread between collateral seized ($15.2M) and debt repaid ($15.0M) represents the liquidation bonus earned by liquidators, averaging 1.3% of liquidated position size as incentive for executing these transactions.
January 29-31 Volatility Event:
The final three days of January saw concentrated liquidation activity as SOL dropped from $125 to $100:
| Date | Events | Collateral Seized | Debt Repaid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29 | 820 | $844K | $836K |
| Jan 30 | 1,579 | $999K | $987K |
| Jan 31 | 11,036 | $9.28M | $9.18M |
| Total | 13,435 | $11.12M | $11.0M |
The January 31 event alone saw 11,036 liquidations processing $9.28M in collateral, representing 61% of the monthly $15.2M total seized in a single day. Despite this end of the month concentration, the liquidation infrastructure performed efficiently with zero bad debt.
Liquidation Volume by Size:
| Size Bucket | Events | Volume | Share | Avg Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100K+ | 24 | $6.1M | 40% | $266K |
| $10K-100K | 176 | $4.5M | 30% | $26K |
| $1K-10K | 1,146 | $3.1M | 21% | $2.7K |
| $0-1K | 13,009 | $1.4M | 9% | $106 |
Liquidation volume was more distributed than event count: the 24 largest events ($100K+) accounted for 40% of volume, while sub-$1K liquidations represented 91% of events but only 9% of volume. This is consistent with a broad base of small retail positions being unwound during the sell-off, alongside a smaller number of sizeable whale liquidations.
Stress Testing:
The stress test chart above shows collateral at risk and potential bad debt at each instantaneous price drop scenario. For comparability with real-world events, the relevant benchmark is the January 29-31 intraday max drawdown: SOL dropped from $125 to $100 (~20%). The 20% scenario is therefore the most directly comparable to January’s actual volatility.
Stress test scenarios (instantaneous shock, vs December baseline):
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10% drop: $139M collateral at risk (+36% vs Dec), $0 potential bad debt
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20% drop: $347M collateral at risk (+48% vs Dec), $7.5M potential bad debt (+45% vs Dec)
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30% drop: $509M collateral at risk (+43% vs Dec), $34.7M potential bad debt (+48% vs Dec)
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40% drop: $682M collateral at risk (+35% vs Dec), $78.3M potential bad debt (+49% vs Dec)
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60% drop: $966M collateral at risk (+20% vs Dec), $212M potential bad debt (+38% vs Dec)
These scenarios represent instantaneous price drops well beyond normal market conditions - Kamino has never incurred bad debt in production. The stress test serves as a sizing exercise, not a forecast. Collateral at risk increased 20-48% MoM across all scenarios, driven by the 7% growth in total debt ($1.2B to $1.3B) and the shift toward RWA positions with high LTV parameters. The larger MoM increases at moderate drawdowns (10-20%) reflect the accumulation of new RWA positions near their liquidation thresholds, while the smaller increase at 60% suggests the deep-drawdown risk profile is less sensitive to the RWA expansion.
4. Per-Market Micro Analysis
Market-level trends:
The Main Market remains the protocol anchor at $2.08B (61% of total supply), though it contracted 10.5% as SOL depreciation reduced USD-denominated values and stablecoin liquidity rotated to higher-yield venues. Isolated markets now represent 37% of total supply ($1.24B), up from 29% in December.
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Prime: $380M supply (+34.5%) / $167M debt (+36%) - Tokenized HELOC market continues rapid growth.
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Maple: $321M supply (+36.0%) / $128M debt (+36%) - Demand for crypto backed credit remains strong with ongoing high utilization.
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JLP: $295M supply (+29.5%) / $107M debt (+74%) - Strong resurgence in leveraged JLP strategies after December’s contraction.
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Jito: $97M supply (-15.9%) / $45M debt (-14%) - LST market contracted as users consolidated positions.
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OnRe: $42M supply (+47%) / $12M debt (+44%) - RWA insurance market with continuous growth and the healthiest collateralisation among RWA markets.
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Marinade: $25M supply (-21.9%) / $11M debt (-21%) - Continued migration to higher-liquidity LSTs.
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Superstate: $14M supply (+540%) / $1.8M debt (+7,215% from a small base) - Tokenized securities market (FWDI) with strong early growth.
RWA Market Spotlight: OnRe
The OnRe market emerged as January’s standout RWA performer, growing 47% to $42M supply while maintaining the healthiest risk profile among RWA markets. Backed by ONyc, a yield-bearing reinsurance token offering 9.27% base APY through reinsurance premiums via Guy Carpenter and Howden, the market operated with conservative 50% max LTV parameters in January. Conservative LTV parameters give OnRe positions wide buffers to liquidation, unlike Prime where high LTV concentrates positions near liquidation thresholds. DEX liquidity totals $10.0M across Orca ($5.7M, primarily ONyc/USDC) and Raydium ($4.4M, USDG-ONyc), providing adequate coverage for the $8.3M in elevated risk positions (10-20% buffer). The market’s stablecoin utilization rates (86-92%) indicate efficient capital deployment, with users primarily borrowing USDG (59%) and USDC (33%) against ONyc collateral.
Market snapshot (January 31, 2026):
| Market | Supply | MoM | Debt | MoM | Util |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main | $2.08B | -10.5% | $803M | -3.1% | 38.6% |
| Prime | $380M | +34.5% | $167M | +35.4% | 43.9% |
| Maple | $321M | +36.1% | $128M | +35.9% | 40.0% |
| JLP | $295M | +29.5% | $107M | +73.7% | 36.2% |
| Jito | $97M | -15.9% | $45M | -14.4% | 46.0% |
| OnRe | $42M | +47% | $12M | +43.5% | 28.2% |
| Marinade | $25M | -21.8% | $11M | -20.6% | 44.7% |
| Superstate | $14M | +540% | $1.8M | +7,215% | 13.2% |
| Solstice | $21M | -13.3% | $8.5M | -7.8% | 39.7% |
Isolated markets (Prime, Maple, JLP, OnRe, etc.) now represent 37% of total supply, up from 29% at the start of January, a structural shift toward specialized lending venues.
5. Kamino Lending Vaults
Kamino’s Lending Vault ecosystem continued its growth trajectory in January, reaching $678M in combined deposits across 24 actively managed vaults curated by professional managers including Sentora, Steakhouse Finance, MEV Capital, and Allez Labs.
Vault ecosystem performance:
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Combined Deposits: $678M (+8.0%)
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Total Users: 14,651 (+3.9%)
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Base APY Range: 1.3% - 6.2%
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Active Vaults: 24 (up from 23)
Top vaults by Deposit:
| Vault | Token | Deposits | MoM | Users | Base APY | Total APY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sentora PYUSD | PYUSD | $415M | +46% | 2,877 | 1.5% | 7.2% |
| Steakhouse USDC Prime | USDC | $132M | -25% | 4,300 | 3.4% | 4.1% |
| Gauntlet CASH Earn | CASH | $48M | -28% | 1,150 | 6.2% | 7.4% |
| Allez USDC | USDC | $23M | -37.2% | 1,162 | 4.2% | 5.2% |
| Steakhouse USD1 High Yield | USD1 | $13M | NEW | 256 | 2.7% | 5.3% |
| Gauntlet USDC Prime | USDC | $13M | -47.5% | 410 | 3.6% | 4.7% |
| Allez SOL | SOL | $9M | -8% | 1,554 | 5.5% | 5.9% |
| Elemental USDC Turbo | USDC | $5M | -18% | 237 | 3.2% | 5.1% |
January saw broad deposit contraction across most vaults, with USDC-denominated products experiencing 7-43% declines as users withdrew capital amid market uncertainty. The exception was Sentora PYUSD, which grew 46% to $415M and now holds over 11.6% of Solana’s circulating PYUSD, driven by attractive incentive yields (7.2% total APY vs 1.5% base lending yield). The 5.7pp spread between incentivized and base yield indicates that this deposit growth is largely incentive-driven; sustainability depends on continued incentive programs.
Steakhouse USD1 High Yield ($13M) launched as a new entrant, leveraging the emerging USD1 stablecoin ecosystem. SOL-denominated vaults grew modestly in token terms (+2.5% for Allez SOL), though USD values declined 8% to $9M reflecting SOL price depreciation rather than withdrawals.
6. Transaction Volume & User Behavior
The Main market dominated daily volume throughout January, typically accounting for $250-350M/day. A spike on January 22 pushed total daily volume above $550M, driven primarily by $325M in Main Market withdrawals from a single large wallet ($231.6M, 71% of the day’s withdrawal volume), a whale repositioning event rather than a broader market trend. A JLP market surge from $2.4M to $40.7M the same day was driven by separate wallets (not the Main Market whale), reflecting leveraged positioning in perpetual strategies. RWA markets saw a notable $118M volume spike on January 14, coinciding with Prime and Maple inflows.
Transactions over $1M account for 78% of total volume ($7.6B of $9.8B) despite representing fewer than 1% of all transactions (722 of 154K). The $100K-1M bucket adds another 14% ($1.3B), meaning large flows drive the vast majority of protocol activity. Sub-$10K transactions make up 86% of event count but only 2% of volume.
Transaction volume dropped during the Jan 29-31 drawdown, falling from $277M to $119M on Jan 30 before rebounding to $207M on Jan 31. The Jan 30 drop reflects voluntary activity freezing, with deposits falling 74% and withdrawals 72% day-over-day. Jan 31 volume recovered as the massive liquidation wave (11,036 events, $9.3M collateral seized) drove elevated repay ($80M) and withdrawal ($72M) activity, while new deposits and borrows remained subdued.
Volume breakdown by transaction type:
| Type | Volume | Share | MoM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Withdrawals | $4.3B | 44% | -32% |
| Deposits | $4.1B | 42% | -48% |
| Borrows | $0.7B | 8% | -1% |
| Repays | $0.6B | 6% | +7% |
Total transaction volume fell 37% MoM, driven by a sharp drop in deposits (-48%) and withdrawals (-32%) as the SOL price decline reduced both USD-denominated activity and user engagement. Borrows and repays were essentially flat MoM, indicating that leverage activity was sustained through the correction. Withdrawals slightly exceeded deposits for the month, consistent with the modest net outflows in SOL-denominated positions.
User metrics:
| Market | Distinct Wallets | Active Positions | With Debt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main | 94,022 | 98,756 | 56,179 |
| JLP | 9,667 | 10,235 | 4,501 |
| Altcoin | 4,545 | 4,548 | 181 |
| Jito | 4,154 | 4,197 | 420 |
| Prime | 1,855 | 1,976 | 716 |
| Solstice | 1,683 | 1,724 | 342 |
| Maple | 1,088 | 1,171 | 840 |
RWA markets (Prime, Maple) show high debt participation rates (36% and 72% respectively), reflecting their leverage-focused use cases where users borrow stablecoins against tokenized yield-bearing collateral.
7. Conclusions & Outlook
Growth and Resilience
January demonstrated that Kamino’s diversification strategy is delivering results. While the Main Market contracted 10.5% on the back of SOL price depreciation, institutional markets compensated: Prime (+34.5%), Maple (+36.0%), and OnRe (+47%) collectively added nearly $200M in supply, pushing total supply to $3.32B. Stablecoins and RWAs now represent half of protocol liquidity, matching SOL-denominated assets for the first time, a meaningful structural shift from a protocol historically anchored to SOL/LST leverage.
The January 29-31 sell-off (SOL $125 to $100) processed 13,435 liquidations and $11.1M in collateral over three days. The protocol’s liquidation infrastructure handled 4x December’s event volume without disruption, confirming its capacity under volatility.
Risk Monitoring
Liquidations were concentrated in uncorrelated positions (SOL collateral borrowing stablecoins), while correlated positions (LST-borrows-SOL, RWA-borrows-stablecoin) remained resilient.
As RWA markets scale rapidly (35-47% MoM growth), continued monitoring of risk parameters and DEX liquidity is warranted. RWA positions sit in isolated markets with independent risk profiles, and during January’s volatility these markets continued attracting capital escaping crypto contagion. OnRe demonstrates that conservative LTV parameters (50% max in January) can support rapid growth with minimal risk concentration, a model that should inform future RWA market launches.
Diversification and Outlook
Kamino’s asset mix is maturing into a balanced two-sided protocol: SOL-denominated supply serving leverage strategies, and USD-denominated supply serving tokenized yield and credit markets. The rise of isolated markets (29% to 37% of supply in one month) reflects growing demand for specialized lending venues with tailored risk parameters. The vault ecosystem ($678M, +8%) continues to attract liquidity, and the emergence of new entrants (Steakhouse USD1, stkeSOL, Superstate FWDI) points to a broadening of the protocol’s value proposition beyond its SOL/LST origins.
Appendix: Asset Category Classification
This report uses a six-category framework to classify all tokens on Kamino Lend.
Category Definitions & Constituent Assets (January 31, 2026):
| Category | Top Assets (by supply) | Jan Supply | Jan Debt | MoM Supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stablecoins | USDC, PYUSD, CASH, USDG, USDS, USDT, USD1, USX, EURC, sUSDe, UXD | $1,166M | $892M | -4.2% |
| LSTs | JitoSOL, jupSOL, dSOL, mSOL, dfdvSOL, bSOL, vSOL, cgntSOL, bonkSOL, stkeSOL, pSOL, fwdSOL, INF, + 17 others | $913M | $3.3M | -9.1% |
| SOL | SOL (native) | $475M | $400M | -11.4% |
| RWAs | PRIME, syrupUSDC, ONyc, FWDI, PST, eUSX, sACRED, GLXY, USCC, PT-USX-, PT-eUSX-, + tokenized stocks (TSLAx, SPYx, NVDAx, MSTRx, QQQx, GOOGLx, AAPLx, HOODx, CRCLx, METAx) | $427M | <$0.01M | +37.1% |
| BTC | cbBTC, xBTC, fBTC, WBTC, LBTC, ZBTC, tBTC | $161M | $1.8M | +11.0% |
| Other | JLP, FLP, ALP, ETH, WIF, GOAT, POPCAT, FARTCOIN, BONK, JTO, JUP, PENGU, KMNO, + others | $182M | $1.0M | +48.6% |
Classification Notes:
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LSTs include all liquid staking tokens (any token ending in “SOL” other than SOL itself, plus INF). Pendle PT tokens wrapping SOL-based assets (e.g., PT-fragSOL, PT-kySOL, PT-bulkSOL) are also classified as LSTs.
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RWAs include tokenized real-world assets (PRIME, syrupUSDC, ONyc, PST, FWDI, sACRED, GLXY, USCC, eUSX), tokenized equities (xStocks market tokens), and Pendle PT tokens wrapping RWA underlyings (PT-USX, PT-eUSX, PT-USCC, PT-syrupUSDC).
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Stablecoins include fiat-pegged tokens used as lending/borrowing primitives. Note that RWA debt is near-zero because RWA tokens serve as collateral, the associated borrowing appears in the Stablecoins category (primarily USDC, PYUSD, CASH).
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BTC is separated from “Other” because bitcoin-backed collateral carries distinct risk characteristics from ETH, LP tokens, or meme coins.
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Other is a catch-all for assets with mixed or idiosyncratic profiles. JLP ($168M) dominates this category.
Correlated/Uncorrelated Assets Note:
Position risk depends on whether collateral and debt are correlated (e.g., LST-borrows-SOL, RWA-borrows-stablecoin) or uncorrelated (e.g., SOL-borrows-USDC). Correlated positions carry lower liquidation risk by design and use tighter DTL thresholds (<1.5% for the Critical tier) because both collateral and debt move together, reducing the probability of liquidation triggers. Uncorrelated positions use broader thresholds (<5% critical) to account for directional price exposure.
Next Report: February 2026 Monthly Report published in March 2026
This report represents independent risk analysis by Allez Labs for the Kamino Finance community. Analysis reflects protocol performance through January 2026.
Prepared by: Allez Labs Risk Team
Report Date: February 11, 2026